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Data from Glassnode suggests that Bitcoin is currently in the historic transition period from the bear market to the bull market.
Bitcoin price-supply correlation in earnings has recently been below 0.75
According to a recent report by glass nodeBTC correlation between price and supply in profit generally observes multiple declines below 0.75 during transition periods.
the “deliver at a profit” is an indicator that measures the percentage of the total Bitcoin supply that is currently making a profit.
The metric works by looking at the history of each coin in the chain to see what price it last moved at. If this previous sale price is less than the current BTC value for a coin, that particular coin currently has some unrealized gains.
The correlation between the price of the crypto and the supply in profit tells us whether the two metrics have gone in the same direction or not.
Here is a chart showing the trend in this Bitcoin correlation over the history of the crypto:
The value of the metric has been low multiple times in recent days | Source: Glassnode's Market Pulse
When the correlation is positive, it means that the price and supply in profit are both moving in the same direction. On the other hand, negative values imply going in opposite directions.
As you can see in the chart above, historically Bitcoin had values above 0.9 for most of the time during each of its previous price cycles.
However, during periods of transition between bull markets and bear markets (and vice versa), the indicator usually observes multiple declines below 0.75.
According to the report, these anomalies occur in the case of bear-to-bull transitions, as sellers become exhausted in late stages of the bear market, while remaining investors become reluctant to move their money out of frustration, reducing the correlation between price and price. supply in profit decreases.
And during the opposite transitions, supply in profit generally rises to close to 100% (as price rises to a new ATH), decreasing any correlation with price.
Recently, the indicator has seen multiple declines below the 0.75 threshold, suggesting that Bitcoin is currently in the historical transition zone from bear to bull.
At the moment of writing, The price of Bitcoin hovers around $19.1k, down 4% over the past seven days. Over the past month, the crypto has fallen 10% in value.
The chart below shows the trend in BTC price over the past five days.
Looks like the value of the crypto hasn't shown much movement in the past few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com