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Bitcoin has recorded generally positive price movement over the past week, gaining 2.39% data from CoinMarketCap. The major cryptocurrency saw a slight dip between Tuesday and Thursday, but quickly rose on Friday to trade above $27,000 again.
Meanwhile, in celebration of the new month of October, popular crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe has predicted an upcoming bullish run for Bitcoin in the fourth quarter of 2033, based on certain expected events.
Analyst Expects Bitcoin to Reach $40,000 in Q4 2023, Starting with a Positive ‘Uptober’
Via a message on X on October 1, Michaël van der Poppe welcomed his 667,000 followers to October with great optimism about the BTC market, renaming the month ‘Uptober’.
Overall, the well-known analyst believes that the crypto bear market is almost over and Bitcoin could soon post some significant gains, as he expressed in an earlier message on September 30.
Interestingly, Van de Poppe’s optimism extends beyond October to the entire fourth quarter of 2023, as he predicts Bitcoin could reach $40,000 before the year is out. Although this prediction is dependent on the occurrence of certain events.
Welcome to Uptober.
Welcome to the fourth quarter, which is shaping up to be a banner quarter, possibly fueled by ETF approvals and the pre-halving rally.
Possibly #Bitcoin up to $40,000 is reasonable.
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) October 1, 2023
Firstly, Michaël van der Poppe mentions the possible approval of ETF applications. The ongoing Bitcoin spot ETF saga in the US has attracted a lot of attention in recent months due to its potential effects on the BTC market.
Realistically, this approval could happen in the fourth quarter of 2023, as this includes the second deadline for most applications.
However, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission could decide to delay its responses to these proposals until the final deadlines, most of which are scheduled for the first quarter of 2024. The US securities regulator is already using such tactics, as evidenced by the early deadlines for most applications.
Last week, the SEC also announced that it would delay its response to certain filings until after the second deadline. These applications include proposals from Black rock, 21SharesBitwise and Valkyrie.
Source: Bloomberg Intelligence
The Bitcoin Pre-Halving Rally
In addition to possible ETF approvals, Michaël van de Poppe also mentioned a possible bitcoin rally before the halving as a factor that could drive asset growth to $40,000 in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Historically speakingthe months leading up to the halving are marked by a Bitcoin rally, as seen in 2012 and 2016.
Based on Van de Poppe’s prediction, he predicts a similar BTC price movement in the coming months, ahead of Bitcoin’s next halving in April 2024, where mining rewards will be reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
However, investors should be aware of black swan events, as seen with Bitcoin’s last halving in 2020. In the months before this halving took place, BTC’s pre-halving rally was temporarily impacted by the negative market effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. .
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $27,138 with a gain of 1.07% on the last day. Meanwhile, the asset’s daily trading volume is down 21.37% and valued at $6.28 billion.
BTC trading at $27,170 on the hourly chart | Source: BTCUSDT chart on Tradingview.com
Featured image from Analytics Insight, chart from Tradingview