Spike In Bitcoin Open Interest Forecasting A 2021 Bullrun To $69K?

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Bitcoin is losing steam in the near term as the $20,000 price is rejected and appears poised to retest past support levels. The cryptocurrency is enjoying a short-lived bullish price action, but buyers were unable to push further.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $20,000 sideways in the last 24 hours and gaining 5% in the past 7 days. Other cryptocurrencies in the top 10 by market cap record negative performance and steeper losses than BTC’s price, except Dogecoin and XRP.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSDT
The price of BTC is moving sideways on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSDT trading overview

Open Interest Tracks Bitcoin Price, What Are The Implications?

As NewsBTC reported based on data from Arcane Research, Bitcoin price’s bullish momentum was followed by participants in the derivatives sector. In late September and early October, when the price of BTC broke through the USD 20,500 resistance, the Open Interest (OI) for future contracts showed an upward trend.

Soon this OI collapsed as the bulls were unable to continue their attack. Something similar happened this past week with OI spiking, led by the price action. The statistic is generally seen as bearish when the price moves up, as it indicates traders are taking long positions to chase the momentum.

Larger players often used the liquidity provided by these leveraged positions, pushing the price in the opposite direction, as Bitcoin has seen in the past 24 hours. However, an increase in Open Interest in the longer term could lead to major rallies.

According to a pseudonym analyst, Bitcoin price saw a 55% rise in Open Interest before the 2021 bull run to $69,000. So far, the stat is up 45%, leaving many wondering if the crypto market will see a similar price explosion as seen in the chart below.

The analyst added the following to the chart below and Open Interest:

I am not saying that from 2020 we will have a similar movement as in the marked area on the map. I’m just showing how an increase in Open Interest doesn’t have to mean a full return every time. It is true that this happened while we were in this current range.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSDT Chart 2
Source: @DaanCrypto via Twitter

What could be causing Bitcoin’s major upward movement?

The analyst believes that a spike or decline in Open Interest, along with bid/sell orders in the spot sector, could provide more clues as to possible ongoing trends. In 2022, Bitcoin’s price collapsed from its previous record high, and this downward pressure was supported by spot sales.

This prevents an aggressive price reversal from happening. Additional data from Arcane Research points to a spike in Open Interest from the end of 2021, this increase was supported by spot sales. Once the latter stops, Bitcoin could be set on a massive uptrend. About this possibility, the analyst wrote:

(…) as long as the spot bid (spot selling) remains stable (very important), I see no immediate danger for these positions. If the price starts to trade lower, keep an eye out for that.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSDT Chart 3
Source: Arcane Research

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