According to data from crypto analytics firm Glassnode, the 90-Day of bitcoin The realized HODL multiple has reached its highest level since May 2022, when of bitcoin Against the current level of upper level of $22,000 the price was around $30,000. The Realized HODL ratio (RHODL) is a ratio of the number of bitcoins that were gone less than a week ago versus the number of coins that were gone one to two years ago.
Glassnode states that high values indicate dominance in 1-week old coins while low values indicate dominance in 1y-2y old coins. The Realized HODL Multiple is an oscillator calculated by dividing the current RHODL by the Simple Moving Average (SMA) of the RHODL over the past 365 days.
The crypto analytics firm says that “when the RHODL Multiple Transition turns into an uptrend in the 90-day window, it indicates that USD-denominated funds are starting to move back towards new demand flows”. This “indicates that profits are being taken, that the market has been able to absorb them… (and) that long-term holders are starting to spend the coin,” Glassnode states.
The RHODL multiplier was last around 0.85, falling below 0.5 in June 2022. Bitcoin Bull market.
What does this mean for BTC?
RHODL comes in the wake of an increase in the multiple of bitcoin With the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization on course for its best monthly performance since October 2021, it has plunged nearly 40% in price so far this month. BTC/USD was changing hands in the upper $22,000 as traders, analysts and investors weighed in. Is the latest rally the start of a longer push higher, or a so-called “bear trap”.
And the recent positive turn in Glassnode’s RHODL metric comes at a time when other indicators are also pointing to a possible bottom. Bitcoin It recently climbed above its 200-day SMA and the realized price. Both are viewed as highly important levels, with a sustained break north or south of either often seen as a sign of a change in bitcoin’s price momentum.
Meanwhile, Glassnode’s new address momentum and real bitcoin P&L ratio are also trending higher. Multiple indicators are also trending higher. Elsewhere, Alternative.me’s Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has recently improved to neutral (above 50). If it can now hold above 50 on a sustained basis, that has historically characterized the end of a bear market.
Macro tailwinds in 2023?
More broadly, the macro picture is looking more favorable than it has been for 2023 – with the Fed’s rate hikes already due in large part to US inflation falling sharply to the central bank’s 2.0% target and US growth slowing significantly. Has happened. Indeed, macro traders are increasingly betting on a more favorable interest rate backdrop in late 2023/2024.
In other words, the main driver of the 2022 bear market (a more hawkish Fed than expected) looks like it won’t be a problem in 2023. While there is no guarantee that bitcoin will build on recent gains and further northward moves in 2023, especially if the upcoming US recession proves worse than anticipated and triggers a decline in US equities, bitcoin’s downside risks remain. have decreased as compared to last year.
In the near term, if bitcoin can mount a push above the $23/23,000 resistance, the door is open for a retest of late summer highs in the $25,500 area as part of a broader push toward the $30,000 area. Is.
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