VanEck is one of the few companies that continues to fight for the approval of a Bitcoin Spot ETF. The American asset manager received a resounding rejection from the US Securities and Exchange Commission in November 2021 after a three-year battle.
Just six months later, on June 24 of this year, VanEck again applied for approval of a physically backed Bitcoin ETF. The SEC’s decision is pending pending.
Despite this support, the investment firm has issued a bearish forecast for BTC in the first quarter of 2023. Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, shared this assessment in a recent media report. presentation.
BTC price could drop to $10,000
“Looking ahead, Bitcoin could test $10,000-$12,000 as Bitcoin miner bankruptcies increase due to the drop in Bitcoin value and rising electricity costs,” predicts VanEck.
The investment firm believes many miners will be forced to restructure or merge to raise capital in difficult times. As Siegel explained, the mining industry is in a state of tremendous stress.
We have an index that tracks the listed companies in this sector; the median market cap is now below $200 million, and each of these companies is burning cash and trading well below book value.
In recent months, BTC has been trading as a risk asset, Siegel said. What surprises the company, however, is its sensitivity to higher interest rates.
VanEck sees a reason for this in policy responses to inflation in developed countries, which have capped energy prices and expanded sanctions against Russia. This was a tough proposition for Bitcoin mining, Sigel explained.
Still, VanEck is optimistic that the BTC price could rise to $30,000 in the second half of 2023 if inflation eases. Looking further, the investment firm is pointing to the 2024 halving, an event that traditionally drives up BTC’s value.
Bitcoin Miner capitulation in full swing
Like NewsBTC reported, the second Bitcoin miner capitulation within one cycle has already started two weeks ago. Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments reported on November 28 that the hash ribbons had confirmed the beginning of the capitulation.
Glassnode’s latest “Bitcoin Miner Net Position Change” data shows that miners have sold aggressively over the past two weeks, at a rate historically higher only in early 2021.
Historically, miner capitulation lasted an average of 48 days, so an end to the selling pressure could be expected by mid-January 2023. However, this is inconsistent with VanEck’s Bitcoin forecast, which envisions a longer bear market.
Despite the fact that miners have clearly given up their BTC holdings over the past week, the interesting thing about this right now is that the price of BTC is on an upward trend.
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at USD 17,882, with today’s FOMC meeting as of 2:30 PM ET is very likely to have a significant impact on the price action in the coming weeks.