US labor market data for May due Friday 2Ra June’s
The data, which is closely scrutinized by policymakers at the US Federal Reserve, could trigger volatility in Bitcoin The market, depending on how and if this affects expectations of further interest rate hikes from the US central bank.
The labor market added 193,000 jobs in May, slowing slightly from the pace of 253,000 jobs in April, according to a series of media reports polling economists.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate has risen from a historic low of 3.4% to 3.5% and the MoM pace of income growth has slowed from 0.5% to 0.3%.
Should the data come out as expected, it would signal that the US labor market remains humming along nicely, pushing back against the idea that the US is close to entering a recession.
It can weigh like cryptocurrencies Bitcoin If that triggers markets to start rebuilding expectations for more tightening from the Fed.
But recent communications suggest that even if Friday’s jobs report came in above expectations, that may not be the case.
Fed signals pause at this month’s meeting
to take the position as Fed policymaker and vice chairman-designate Philip Jefferson laid out his preference for a Fed break on Wednesday Its interest rate hike cycle at its upcoming meeting this month.
“Preferring the rate hike until the coming meeting will allow the committee to see more data before making a decision about the extent of additional policy setting,” Jefferson said.
His remarks echoed those recently communicated by Fed Chair Jerome Powell In a speech last month.
Powell cited a desire to see the lagged effect of interest rate tightening over the past 15 months, as well as concerns about tighter debt conditions in the wake of March’s mini. “Bank Crisis”As reasons to be more vigilant.
According to CME’s Fed Watch ToolThe US interest rate futures market means there is an 80% chance the Fed leaves interest rates unchanged at 5.0-5.25% this month, despite some Fed policymakers expressing their preference for continued tightening.
In light of recent communications from key Fed policymakers like Jefferson and Powell, even a strong jobs report may not change these expectations much.
But Downside Bitcoin Price Risk Remains
But a stronger-than-expected jobs report may still weigh on expectations of a Fed interest rate cut before the end of 2023. Bitcoin,
CME’s Fed Watch tool currently projects a more than 65% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by at least 25 bps from current levels by the end of the year.
A strong jobs report could thus reinforce the bearish business bias seen recently. Bitcoin market.
The price last traded at $26,800, banging around the 100-day EMA and slightly below the 21DMA.
Technicians live largely in light of the recession of bitcoin There was a recent rejection of its 50DMA and a decline from the yearly high to low of $28,000.
Many think that a recent low of sub-$26,000 is likely, and that Bitcoin A descending triangle formation could be in the process of forming, a break to the downside of which could trigger a test, or even a break below key long-term support at the lower $25,000 level.