At current levels in the mid $29,000s, Bitcoin (BTC) price is up over 6.0% in the last 24 hours coingeco,
Indeed, it is still down about 4.5% from the 10-month high it hit above $31,000 earlier this month. Bitcoin It has now recovered close to 10% since testing its 50-day moving average in the $27,000 area a few days ago.
And with the bank crisis concerns are back in focus as First Republic once again comes under scrutiny (creating safe haven demand for Bitcoin) and the boom in tech stocks (with which Bitcoin positively correlated), the bulls are preparing for a drop in price north of the psychologically important $30,000.
and macros are not fundamental of bitcoin Now only tailwind.
The cryptocurrency continues to benefit from technical buying resulting from 1) a strong rebound from the 50DMA, 2) a strong rebound from the 200DMA and price below $20,000 in March, and 3) a “golden cross” in early February.
Several analysts noted on Twitter that Bitcoin It appears to be following in the footsteps of the rally seen in 2019, where the cryptocurrency made lower lows that remained higher.
One analyst asked if we were about to see an “impulsive” rally Bitcoin towards $50,000.
History Suggests Bitcoin’s Uptrend Should Continue
An analysis of bitcoin’s long-term market cycles shows that it will be historically common for the cryptocurrency to remain in a strong uptrend for the foreseeable future, which is the reason why bulls should expect a near-term push north of $30,000.
From the bottom of the 2015 bear market to the top of the 2017 bull market, bitcoin gained an astonishing 12,500%.
From the bottom of its 2018 bear market to the top of its 2021 bull market, bitcoin still gained an impressive 2,100%.
Assuming each bear market continues to return, can bitcoin expect a 1,000% (11x) rally from its 2022 low?
This would mean that bitcoin would reach the $165,000 area in the next few years.
Elsewhere, the bitcoin market cycle is roughly four years, according to the bitcoin stock-to-flow pricing model, which shows an estimated price level based on the number of BTC available in the market relative to the amount mined each year.
Right now bitcoin has a fair value of around $55K and could rise above $500K in the market cycle following the next halving – that’s a nearly 20x gain from current levels.
Meanwhile, Blockchaincenter.net’s popular bitcoin rainbow chart shows that, at current levels, bitcoin is in “accumulation” territory, having recently recovered from “basically a fire sale” late-2022 territory. . In other words, the model suggests that bitcoin is slowly recovering from being extremely oversold. During its last bull run, bitcoin was able to reach a “sell”. Seriously, sell! Area.
If it can repeat this feat in the next halving market cycle within a year and a half after the next halving, the model suggests a potential bitcoin price in the $200-$300K region. This is about 7-10 times more than the current level.
Bitcoin Bulls Need to Watch These Resistance Levels
Assuming that the BTC price quickly moves back north of $30,000, as a Trading Signals Tracked by Bloomberg As historically likely in the past week suggested, the first major resistance area for traders to watch is going to be the $32,500-$33,000 area as a late May 2022 low and January 2022 low.
The next key level above this is the February 2022 low around $34,000, then the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the 2022 low to the 2021 record high just below $36,000, then the old support area in the mid-$37,000 range.
If bitcoin can breach all these levels, it is likely to rally above $40,000 and test the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the 2022 low at $42,000 on a return to the 2021 high. .