Derebit’s Bitcoin Volatility Index (DVOL) just dropped to 52, its lowest level since 8th of March.
The decline comes despite being fresh from a more than six-week low Bitcoin The price’s recent pullback from its 10-month high above $31,000 took place last week.
B T c The bond was last changing hands in the mid-$27,000s as major macro risk events in the coming two weeks.
This week saw the release of the first estimates of US GDP growth for the first quarter of this year on Thursday and the release of the Fed’s favorite monthly inflation gauge (core PCE report) on Friday.
Major US tech behemoths such as Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and Google will also report earnings this week, which could have a big impact on macro sentiment as well.
This will be followed by the release of the monthly US ISM PMI survey and jobs data next week, as well as a rate decision from the US central bank,
irrigated Interest rates are seen to be lifted by another 25 bps from 4.75-5.0% to 5.0-4.25%, although the money market is currently indicating that this will be the last rate hike of the cycle, with the rate-cutting cycle expected to end later this year. Likely to start in
As indicated by the decline in DVOL, the decline in bitcoin volatility expectations suggests that traders/investors view it as more likely that the price of BTC will decline in the coming weeks, given the recent decline. Bitcoin will consolidate within the recent ranges (i.e. in the $25,000-$30,000 area) rather than continuing to aggressively push higher, as was seen in March when Bitcoin rebounded sharply from a brief drop below $20,000. Was.
Alternative measures of bitcoin volatility expectations are also hovering near recent lows as implied volatility according to at-the-money (ATM) options pricing.
But traders should not discount the risk that upcoming macro risk events could push the market higher.
Keep an Eye on These BTC Price Levels
The $27,000 and $28,000 levels are the most immediate levels for traders to hold at the start of the week, as they mark recent intra-day highs and lows, as well as the 50-day moving average at $27,120.
To the downside, the $26,500 area proved to be a key resistance-turned-support area in March and could provide good intraday support for bitcoin to slide back to these levels this week.
If the bears do indeed gain control, a test of the key long-term resistance in the $25,200-400 area is on the cards.
Meanwhile, on the upside, the $28,800-$29,300 area marks a series of highs and 21-day moving averages dating back to late March/early April.
These levels, coupled with the recent break of the uptrend since late March, could offer solid intraday resistance for the bulls to regain control.
recently trade signals Last week’s close in the middle of last week as highlighted by Bloomberg suggests that a retracement above $30,000 is likely in the coming days based on historical price action patterns.
More broadly, even if bitcoin were to drop back to $25,000, it is more likely to be viewed by market participants as a great buying opportunity than a disaster.
with many Long term on-chain indicator A buy signal is flashing for bitcoin and with longer-term market cycle analysis suggesting that the cryptocurrency is in the early stages of a bull market, long-term concentrated dip-buyers BTC price is likely to remain supported for the foreseeable future.
