bitcoin (BTC/USD) is trading above the $24,000 level after a failed breakout of the $25k resistance.
Given this, the fall to the weekly low of $23,600 has traders keen on the macro outlook for the leading digital asset, with fresh bullish sentiment building up as the market enters the last five days of February. Is.
While the main hurdle remains the macro downtrend line established since November 2021 on the monthly charts, popular trader and technical analyst Rakyat Capital says that BTC could see a new monthly breakout candle in March or April.
Macro Uptrend Continues, But BTC Faces Mixed Resistance
Macro analysis overview Bitcoin shared via youtube VideoRekt Capital highlights the current monthly candle close to an important downtrend resistance line, which marked previous breakouts in June 2015 and March 2019.
A look at the bearish market pullback from 2021 all-time highs suggests that the bitcoin price is inching closer to a new breakout point. If the macro picture pans out, BTC is likely to break through the monthly candle in March or April. The analyst explained:
“Bitcoin is hovering below resistance but not really touching that resistance, but the way this candle is similar to both previous cycles is that the new monthly candle close – the actual breakout candle – closed outside the downtrend. happens by being.”
For this month, he is of the view that BTC’s pre-breakout candle will close well below or at resistance (around $24,800). A technical breakout could see BTC/USD rally higher, potentially rising to forecast levels in the $28k-$30k region. However, from a macro perspective, the price is likely to see some “edge” from the downtrend, which includes range trading including a retest of key support levels before the bulls establish a strong upward momentum.
Rekt says that the latest downtrend support level at $23,400 is likely before the monthly close, given the struggle near $25k. Bitcoin has successfully tested this support area.
There is also a “confluence resistance” area formed around $24,800, which bitcoin could easily break next month, compared to the $26,400 barrier presented on the monthly chart in February.
Technical Indicators Point to BTC’s Upside Flip
Rekt also shares a technical outlook with bitcoin “sandwiched between two keysExponential Moving Average (EMA). It is likely that the price will continue to consolidate within the two bull market EMAs, showing a bullish trend if the price breaks above the 50-week EMA.
Also suggesting a macro uptrend is on the cards is Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI). The indicator recently broke out of a descending channel and continued above a wedge pattern. He added that a break below the long-term horizontal line could result in a reversal move that launches BTC into a new uptrend.
Another technical element on the daily chart was the recent invalidation of a head and shoulders pattern, with massive buy-side volume helping the price break out to year-over-year highs.
Although heavy sell-side volume reported a directional bias that saw BTC move lower, it enabled a retest of support and a break of lower higher resistance – which is the new monthly range high. The bulls need to keep the price above the monthly range near $23,400 to support a potential breakout in the coming weeks and months.
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