Bitcoin The network saw 432,613 transactions on Sunday the 23rdthird According to data presented by crypto analytics firm Glassnode, Apr.
This is the third largest daily transaction Bitcoin The highest in the history of the network and since the peak of 452,462 in early May 2019.
The spike in network activity, which has also pushed the 7-day exponential moving average (EMA) of daily transactions above 350,000 (the highest since December 2020), comes despite a recent pullback. Bitcoin The price recovered north of the $31,000 level from a 10-month high earlier this month.
B T c The price was last seen trading near the $27,300 level, with the price finding solid intra-day support near the $27,000 level.
The increase in network activity in recent months shows that demand is stronger and better for using the bitcoin network as a settlement layer, a positive sign for the world’s first and largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.
Other metrics of network usage, including the number of active addresses, the number of new addresses, and the number of addresses holding non-zero BTC balances, have also been trending higher in recent months.
Positive on-chain trends bode well for BTC price
Network utilization measures aren’t the only on-chain metrics that bode well for bitcoin’s price.
tracked in metrics glassnode recovering from bitcoin bearer dashboard Including those related to the return of market profitability, the balance of USD-denominated bitcoin money and where spot prices are trading relative to major pricing models have been sending a strong signal in recent weeks that the bitcoin bear market is now behind us. , and that bitcoin is likely in the early stages of a new bull high.
As of Sunday, seven of the eight indicators were flashing green, though in recent weeks all indicators have been flashing together on a consistent basis for the first time in more than two years.
Bitcoin’s strong rally in 2023, which has seen BTC rally nearly 65% year-to-date, comes amid expectations that the Fed’s interest rate tightening cycle (the main bearish headwind of 2022) is nearing an end and the cryptocurrency After the markets arguably sold off well late last year following the collapse of FTX.
Safe-haven demand has further pushed BTC’s price amid concerns that the traditional banking sector could be in trouble in the wake of the collapse of the US bank in early March, although regulatory uncertainty amid a flurry of US SEC enforcement action has A cover is placed. Reverse.
But as global crypto adoption continues to move in the right direction and macro/on-chain conditions change favorably, the medium to long-term outlook for BTC remains strong.
How high can bitcoin go in this bull market?
Assuming the bitcoin bull market is back, how high can BTC go in this cycle?
We can arrive as a guest by looking at the last two market cycles of bitcoin, both of which lasted roughly four years.
From the bottom of the 2015 bear market to the top of the 2017 bull market, bitcoin gained an astonishing 12,500%.
From the bottom of its 2018 bear market to the top of its 2021 bull market, bitcoin still gained an impressive 2,100%.
Assuming each bear market continues to return, can bitcoin expect a 1,000% (11x) rally from its 2022 low?
This would mean that bitcoin would reach the $165,000 area in the next few years.
Other more widely followed bitcoin pricing models are sending a potentially more bullish story.
The bitcoin market cycle is roughly four years, according to the bitcoin stock-to-flow pricing model, which shows an estimated price level based on the number of BTC available in the market relative to the amount being mined each year.
Right now bitcoin has a fair value of around $55K and could rise above $500K in the market cycle following the next halving – that’s a nearly 20x gain from current levels.
Finally, Blockchaincenter.net’s popular bitcoin rainbow chart shows that, at current levels, bitcoin is in “accumulation” territory, having recently recovered from “basically a fire sale” territory in late 2022. . In other words, the model suggests that bitcoin is slowly recovering from being extremely oversold. During its last bull run, bitcoin was able to reach a “sell”. Seriously, sell! Area.
If it can repeat this feat in the next halving market cycle within a year and a half after the next halving, the model suggests a potential bitcoin price in the $200-$300K region. This is about 7-10 times more than the current level.