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Data from Glassnode suggests that the long-term capitulation of Bitcoin holders has not yet reached a scale that would imply widespread loss of conviction.
The supply of long-term Bitcoin holders has fallen by 61.5k BTC since November 6
This is according to the latest weekly report of glass nodethe supply of long-term BTC holders has recently seen a notable decline.
The “long term holders(LTHs) form a cohort that includes all Bitcoin investors who have held their coins since at least 155 days ago.
Holders belonging to this group are statistically the least likely to sell at any time, so movements from them can have noticeable effects on the market.
The “long term holder deliveryis an indicator that measures the total number of coins currently stored in the wallets of these determined investors.
Changes in the value of this metric can tell us whether LTHs are currently accumulating or selling.
Here is a chart showing the trend in Bitcoin LTH supply over the past few years:
Looks like the value of the metric has decreased in the last few days | Source: Glassnode's The Week Onchain - Week 46, 2022
As you can see in the chart above, Bitcoin LTH stock had been on a steady upward trend for many months prior to last week and set new all-time highs.
This means that the market was constantly rallying the crypto as the bear market continued.
However, since November 6 (when the crash caused by the FTX collapse started), the indicator has fallen sharply, suggesting that LTHs have participated in some sales.
In total, the drop so far has amounted to around 61.5k BTC leaving the LTHs’ portfolios during this period.
The chart also includes the data for the 7-day changes in this Bitcoin indicator, and it appears that the stat is currently at a negative value of 48.1k.
This value is not negligible, but as can be seen from the chart, this red peak is not at the level of those observed during the previous sell-off.
The report notes that this could mean that there has not yet been widespread loss of conviction among Bitcoin’s most resolute holders.
However, it remains to be seen where the metrics will come from. “However, if this develops into a sustained decline in LTH supply, it could suggest otherwise,” Glassnode warns.
At the moment of writing, The price of Bitcoin is floating around $16.8k, down 15% from the past week. Over the past month, the crypto has lost 13% in value.
The value of the crypto seems to still be trading sideways | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Daniel Dan on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com