Bitcoin has done well over the past week with multiple rallies pushing the price of the digital asset back to early November 2022 levels. While investor sentiment appears to have recovered significantly, not everyone expects BTC to continue to do well. The Coinmarketcap Price Estimates feature shows that a large number of investors expect the price of the cryptocurrency to fall over the next two weeks.
12% drop for Bitcoin
The Coinmarketcap Price Estimates feature allows users to enter their forecasts for the price of any digital asset and then produce an average price based on everyone’s predictions. This can help to get a good sense of the community and how they are looking for an asset.
For bitcoin, it seems that not many investors expect the pioneering cryptocurrency to continue this recovery trend. Of more than 19,000 price estimates submitted, the median came in at an expected price drop of 12% over the next two weeks. Such a drop would actually push the price of BTC down to $18,634, losing more than $2,500 of its current value.
This bearish sentiment does not stop at the end of January, but continues in the following months. The average estimated price for the month of February was $18,981, which is a decrease of more than 10% from the current price, and the outlook for March was almost identical in this regard.
The expected declines extend over the next six months, with price medians continuing to fall. Estimates showed a decline of 14-18% for the months of April, June and July, respectively.
Bearish outlook for BTC in the next six months | Source: Coinmarketcap
Will BTC Succumb to Bearish Pressure?
Over the past week, bitcoin price has been able to clear multiple key levels. These include the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, which reinforce the short-term bullish trend. While the digital asset is still bullish in the near term, there could be more bad news in the long term.
One major technical level that BTC has yet to clear is the 200-day moving average. This is perhaps one of the most important indicators if the digital asset is to continue its upward rally in the coming months. It currently sits at $22,738, meaning that going up another 5% from its current price could bring BTC in line with this indicator.
If bitcoin fixes this, the selling pressure will likely ease as more investors try to get into the asset. This would trigger a test of the $22,400 resistance level, a level that could easily be beaten as long as there is no lag in the decline. Ultimately, Bitcoin’s long-term performance will depend on its ability to move enough to beat the 200-day MA.
BTC price is now above USD 21,100 after failing to beat the USD 21,500 resistance level.
BTC price drops below $21,200 | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
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