On-chain data shows that medium-term Bitcoin holders have been moving for the past day, suggesting they may be currently dumping.
Bitcoin age group of 3-6 months shows major spike in output spent
As noted by an analyst in a CryptoQuant after, an increase in issued output for the group from 3-6 months earlier has led to big moves for BTC. The relevant indicator here is the “Issued output age groups”, which tells us which age groups in the Bitcoin market are currently moving how many coins.
These “age groups” are groups that define ranges between which the coins (or holders) that last fell in the said band showed some movement or sale. For example, the “1m-3m” age range includes all tokens that have been inactive since a minimum of 1 month and a maximum of 3 months ago. If holders belonging to this group move their coins, the movement will appear as a peak on the issued outputs chart for the band.
In the context of the current topic, the relevant age range is the “3m-6m” group. Here is a graph showing the trend in output statistics used over the past few years:
The value of the metric seems to have shot up during the last day | Source: CryptoQuant
As the chart above shows, the issued output metric has recently registered a large value for the 3m-6m Bitcoin age range. The holders belonging to this group are also referred to as the “intermediate-term holders”, due to the fact that their range straddles the boundary between the short-term holder cohorts and the long-term holder cohorts.
The chart shows that when this holder group shows signs of heavy dumping, the price of BTC sees a sharp drop soon after. The latest crash after the collapse of FTXwas also preceded by a large movement of these investors.
After the current peak, Bitcoin has actually already seen a short-term decline, as the chart below shows. However, it’s unclear at this point if this drop is all there will be. If we can get past past examples, Bitcoin usually sees a big move when this trend forms, implying that the real drop from the last spike is yet to come.
A closer look at the price trend following the spike in the indicator | Source: CryptoQuant
BTC price
At the moment of writing, The price of Bitcoin floating around $16.8k, down 3% over the past week.
Looks like the value of the crypto has been moving sideways since the plunge a few days back | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image of mana5280 on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com