Bitcoin (BTC) price has shrugged off concerns about sudden volatility in the long term idle pocketas well as ongoing regulatory uncertainty Coinbase is now suing the US SEC for the lack of clarity on crypto regulations, and posted a strong rebound north of the $28,000 level for the first time in four days.
This is likely thanks to a surge in technical buying ahead of the 50-day moving average at $27,200, as well as near-term support in the form of recent lows just above $27,000.
of bitcoin Tuesday’s more than 2.5% surge to $28,200 has bulls hoping the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization could enable a quick jump north of the $30,000 it briefly hit earlier this month. had won
A Short-Term Buy Signals Monitored by Bloomberg fired a week ago Bitcoin Was changing hands for less than $29,000.
Historically, B T c Around 7% profit within next 10 days after this trading signal.
If history is a good guide, bitcoin price could be set for a rapid upward move towards $31,000 over the next three days.
This would require bitcoin to move back above key near-term resistance levels in the form of the 21DMA near $28,900 and the late March/late April highs of the $28,900-$29,300 area.
But a break above this key resistance area would open the door for further upside given the lack of new notable resistance levels before the yearly highs around $31,000.
Upcoming macro risks could shake things up
Key upcoming macro risk events such as this week’s US GDP and next week’s Fed meeting, jobs and ISM survey data could constrain actions if they provide a meaningful change in the macro narrative.
Part of the rationale for this year’s bitcoin rally, in addition to safe-haven demand risk of banking crisis And a rebound after the historically oversold market conditions of Q4 2022 has been that the The Fed’s tightening phase is almost over,
According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the market’s base case assumption is a 25 bps rate hike to 5.0-5.25% by the end of the year, followed by a 100 bps hike by the end of the year.
Markets appear to be assuming that the ensuing credit crunch coupled with the delayed effect of aggressive interest hikes will drive the economy into recession in the second half of the year, prompting the Fed to ease financial conditions to support growth. will be forced to do.
This is a largely bitcoin/crypto positive narrative, as it assumes easier financial conditions ahead, undermining the arguments for a lower bitcoin price.
Assuming this narrative remains largely intact in the coming weeks, bitcoin price should remain bullish in the medium to long term.
For reference, long-term on-chain indicators and analysis of bitcoin’s long-term market cycles, as referenced in recent articleSending Strong Signals That Cryptocurrencies Have Entered The early stages of a new bull market,